Thursday, April 23, 2015

Financial Crunch! Economic Collapse! (Part 16)

*******
Get far away from USA...its collapse will be messy: Jeff Berwick  
*******
Gold, Silver and “Crashing Markets”. It’s Ugly if You Look Under the Hood
Global Research, May 01, 2015
The Flight into Gold and Silver

My plan for today was to write a very basic piece hitched to the one written yesterday “the money has to go somewhere”. The plan was to point out that gold (and silver) will be the final destination for monies dislodged from crashing markets all over the world. Along came the Q1 figures for U.S. GDP, a disaster on many levels. So switching gears, let’s look at the first quarter, how quickly the economy has deteriorated and what it means in the future and in relation to the past. I do plan to tie this together at the end because no matter how you look at it, gold is a magnet for what will be shaken loose.
Q1 GDP came in at .2% growth, this was a whopping $6 billion worth of growth for the quarter. This number was an obvious disappointment as estimates were around 1%+. Of course the apologists were immediately out in full force to remind us of how terrible the winter was and “weather” was to blame. I would ask, isn’t that what “seasonal adjustments” are for? Steve Liesman of CNBC even posed the question why seasonal adjustments are “not working”. The obvious answer is because you can only stretch, massage and outright lie about economic numbers so far before you cannot any longer …because even the blind will see it.
Breaking the quarter down and looking under the hood, were it not for the biggest inventory build of any quarter in history, the quarter would have shown a negative 2.6% growth rate . What exactly does this mean? It means the consumer or final user has shut off their purchases. It means “stuff” was produced but wasn’t sold. The inventory build number was over $120 billion, can this happen again in the 2nd quarter? And what if the end buyer keeps their pocketbook shut again? Something must give, either the inventory gets sold or the producers must cut back production drastically.
It is worth mentioning that QE 3, the “final QE” ended in the fourth quarter. Is this an example of the economy convulsing because the juice was taken away? And let’s not forget, today (yesterday) was a Fed meeting and announcement, can they possibly even hint about raising rates and actually withdrawing some of the previous “juice”? Another “blame” is being pinned on the strong dollar, can the Fed really raise rates and put a further bid under the dollar?
What does this mean for the future of the economy and more importantly the financial markets? The markets are at record high valuations, the news of an economy going in reverse can only augur for lower earnings. The strong dollar can only augur for a Fed who doesn’t want a stronger dollar. The leverage in the financial system is so thin already, can the risk be taken that something will snap? I don’t believe so, I also believe it will not be long before QE 4 gets floated seriously and then implemented.
As I wrote yesterday, “the money has to go somewhere”. It looks to me like some sort of come to Jesus moment is close in both the economy and the markets. If you have been awake, you understand the economic and financial systems, are dichotomized yet so intertwined, a spark anywhere means a fire everywhere! Literally hundreds of $trillions will be shaken, some of it “shaken loose” and will look for a safe place to hide.
All the gold ever mined in history is worth some $6 trillion, what do you suppose will happen when $10′s of trillions seek the safe harbor of gold? No matter how you look at it, the Fed is in a box of their own making, any action or inaction has the possibility of shaking the tree and dislodging capital, forcing it to look for safety. The result will be your “no offer” moment in time. As capital floods toward the only monetary asset that cannot default, owners will pull their wares off the shelf and withdraw their offers. This only makes sense because the movements will be so large and so fast, no one will even know what various assets are worth or where they will settle until after the dust clears.
I leave you with this thought, if you need to build a fire or light a cigarette, how much would you pay for a BIC lighter? The same could be asked about “money”, if one needs to put capital somewhere that cannot ever default (which is gold only), what is one ounce of gold worth? It is crystal clear to me, when this question gets asked, it may take some time for the physical market to clear and give an answer! The true value of gold will shine as a vortex of defaults occurs.
*******
Greek Mayors to Protest Government Decision to Seize Their Cash
April 20, 2015
As Greece struggles to find cash to stay afloat, local authorities say they oppose a government decision to use their reserves for short-term financing.
"The government’s decision to seize our reserves not only raises legal and constitutional issues, but also a moral one," said George Papanikolaou, mayor of Glyfada, the third-largest municipality in the metropolitan region of Attica after Athens and Piraeus. "We have a responsibility to serve our citizens," Papanikolaou said by phone on Monday. Glyfada has about 16 million euros in cash reserves, he said.
Running out of other options, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras ordered local governments and central government entities to move their cash balances to the central bank for investment in short-term state debt.
The decree to confiscate reserves held in commercial banks and transfer them to the Bank of Greece could raise as much as 2 billion euros ($2.15 billion), according to two people familiar with the decision. The money is needed to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month, the people said.
"It is a politically and institutionally unacceptable decision," Giorgos Patoulis, mayor of the city of Marousi and president of the Central Union of Municipalities and Communities of Greece, said in a statement on Monday."No government to date has dared to touch the money of municipalities."
The Athens city council and the union of municipalities and communities in Greece will convene tomorrow to debate the order, a press officer of the mayor’s office said.
"Central government entities are obliged to deposit their cash reserves and transfer their term deposit funds to their accounts at the Bank of Greece," according to the decree posted Monday on a government website said. The "regulation is submitted due to extremely urgent and unforeseen needs."
The additional funding may be only enough to pay salaries and a 770 million-euro tranche owed to the IMF on May 12, the people familiar with the decision said.
*******
Also See:
Food Shortage, Then Anarchy!
(Part 2)
03 September 2014
and
Economic Collapse! How Did We Get Here?
(Part 2)
28 September 2013
and
Are We Facing a Global Financial Crisis?
31 May 2011

http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2011/05/are-we-facing-global-financial-crisis.html
and
Financial Crunch! Economic Collapse!

(Part 1)
31 July 2008
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2008/07/financial-crunch-economic-collapse.html
and
(Part 2)
20 November 2008
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2008/11/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and
(Part 3) 

25 January 2009
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2009/01/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and

(Part 4)
17 April 2009
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2009/04/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and

(Part 5)
23 June 2009
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2009/06/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and

(Part 6)
23 August 2009
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2009/08/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and

(Part 7)
30 November 2009
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2009/11/xxxx.html
and
(Part 8)
23 February 2010
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2010/02/debt-dynamite-dominoes-coming-financial.html
and
(Part 9)
28 August 2010
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2010/08/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and
(Part 10)
13 January 2011
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2011/01/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and
(Part 11)
29 April 2011
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2011/04/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and
(Part 12)
28 July 2011
http://arcticcompass.blogspot.ca/2011/07/financial-crunch-economic-collapse-part.html
and
(Part 13)
04 April 2012
(Part 15)
02 November 2012
and
Recession? ... Depression? ... What is Going On?
(Part 1)
06 October 2008
(Part 2)
02 February 2009
and
(Part 3)
19 April 2009
and
(Part 4)
02 August 2009
and
(Part 5)
17 September 2010
and
(Part 6)
17 September 2010
and
(Part 7)
23 July 2014
and
Jobs, Jobs, Where are the Jobs?
(Part 1)
20 April 2010
and
The Poor - Prosperity Creates Poverty! 
(Part 1) 
and
(Part 2)
13 November 2013
and
How Do We Eradicate Poverty?
27 November 2012
*******